AGNC Expenditure Corp. AGNC is scheduled to report to start with-quarter 2022 outcomes on Could 2, 2022, following the closing bell. The company’s success are predicted to replicate a year-over-calendar year decline in earnings.
This Bethesda, MD-based mostly mortgage loan genuine estate investment have faith in (mREIT) posted a fourth-quarter 2021 net distribute and greenback roll earnings per prevalent share (excluding approximated “catch-up” high quality amortization prices) of 75 cents for every share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents.
Modified internet fascination and dollar roll revenue (excluding capture-up high quality amortization) was $440 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $418 million. The claimed figure, on the other hand, declined from the quarter-ago variety of $443 million.
More than the trailing 4 quarters, the firm surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions. It has an earnings surprise of 17.6%, on average, for the claimed interval. The graph under depicts the surprise history:
AGNC Expense Corp. Cost and EPS Surprise
AGNC Expenditure Corp. price-eps-shock | AGNC Financial investment Corp. Estimate
Let us see how matters have shaped up prior to the initially-quarter earningsannouncement.
Significant volatility, significant distribute widening and a noteworthy maximize in benchmark charges resulted in a hard ecosystem in the initially quarter of 2022 for fixed-income marketplaces. Amid the market turbulence, Agency property finance loan-backed securities (MBS) underperformed. This is possible to have affected the company’s e-book price.
The company’s tangible guide worth is expected to have declined in the very first quarter. It documented an estimated tangible internet reserve worth of $13.48 for every common share as of Feb 28, 2022.This marks a drop from $15.75 noted at the finish of the prior quarter.
Mortgage loan originations, equally invest in and refinancing, ongoing to normalize in the initially quarter. Mortgage loan originations volumes have been experiencing hard comps from the prior calendar year, which have been propelled by minimal home finance loan charges.
However, in the 1st quarter, house loan costs elevated. As of the initial-quarter 2022 conclude, the common fee on the 30-year bank loan rose to 4.67%, in sharp contrast to previous year’s document-low property finance loan charges of close to 3%.
For this reason, mortgage loan origination things to do are estimated to have diminished substantially, with growing prices discouraging refinancing exercise.
Minimized amounts of refinancing are expected to have alleviated pressure from AGNC’s MBS holdings, which have been witnessing elevated stages of prepayments about the past couple quarters. This is anticipated to have diminished internet high quality amortization in the initially quarter, presenting scope for development in desire money and common asset produce.
In anticipation of the Fed’s order tapering plans, as effectively as predicted distribute widening and bigger volatility, the corporation has been trimming its expenditure portfolio more than the previous number of quarters. This is expected to have led to decrease desire profits, therefore impacting NII in the 1st quarter.
Increased volatility in the fastened revenue marketplaces has enhanced asset impairment possibility and hedging mismatches for AGNC Financial commitment in the quarter beneath evaluate.
Also, provided the increase in fascination costs in the quarter, the corporation is envisioned to have noticed larger funding fees. This is likely to have amplified fascination fees in the first quarter.
The company’s pursuits in the quarter were insufficient to achieve analysts’ self-assurance. As such, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of internet distribute and dollar roll revenue for every prevalent share has been revised marginally downward to 61 cents in the earlier month. Also, it implies a tumble of 19.7% from the 12 months-in the past claimed determine.
Our proven design does not clearly show that AGNC Expenditure is probable to conquer estimates this quarter. This is since a inventory wants to have the mixture of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Sturdy Invest in), 2 (Acquire) or at least 3 (Maintain) for this to materialize.
You can uncover the very best stocks to acquire or sell just before they’re documented with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AGNC Investment’s Earnings ESP is -2.75%.
Zacks Rank: The enterprise presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
You can see the entire listing of today’s Zacks #1 Rank shares right here.
Stocks Truly worth a Glimpse
A few REIT stocks that you may perhaps want to take into account, as our model displays that these have the suitable mixture of features to article an earnings conquer this time all around, are Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital HASI, Public Storage PSA and Host Lodges & Resorts, Inc. HST.
Hannon Armstrong is slated to launch 1st-quarter 2022 earnings on May well 3. HASI has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at existing.
Community Storage, slated to release initially-quarter earnings on May 3, has an Earnings ESP of +.50% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at existing.
Host Lodges & Resorts, scheduled to report quarterly figures on May perhaps 4, has an Earnings ESP of +4.07% and it presently athletics a Zacks Rank of 1.
Remain on top of upcoming earnings bulletins with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Want the most current recommendations from Zacks Investment Exploration? Currently, you can down load 7 Greatest Stocks for the Up coming 30 Days. Click on to get this absolutely free report