What is actually in the Playing cards for AGNC Investment’s (AGNC) Q1 Earnings?

AGNC Expenditure Corp. AGNC is scheduled to report to start with-quarter 2022 outcomes on Could 2, 2022, following the closing bell. The company’s success are predicted to replicate a year-over-calendar year decline in earnings.

This Bethesda, MD-based mostly mortgage loan genuine estate investment have faith in (mREIT) posted a fourth-quarter 2021 net distribute and greenback roll earnings per prevalent share (excluding approximated “catch-up” high quality amortization prices) of 75 cents for every share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents.

Modified internet fascination and dollar roll revenue (excluding capture-up high quality amortization) was $440 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $418 million. The claimed figure, on the other hand, declined from the quarter-ago variety of $443 million.

More than the trailing 4 quarters, the firm surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions. It has an earnings surprise of 17.6%, on average, for the claimed interval. The graph under depicts the surprise history:

AGNC Expense Corp. Cost and EPS Surprise

AGNC Financial investment Corp. Cost and EPS Surprise

AGNC Expenditure Corp. price-eps-shock | AGNC Financial investment Corp. Estimate

Let us see how matters have shaped up prior to the initially-quarter earningsannouncement.

Significant volatility, significant distribute widening and a noteworthy maximize in benchmark charges resulted in a hard ecosystem in the initially quarter of 2022 for fixed-income marketplaces. Amid the market turbulence, Agency property finance loan-backed securities (MBS) underperformed. This is possible to have affected the company’s e-book price.

The company’s tangible guide worth is expected to have declined in the very first quarter. It documented an estimated tangible internet reserve worth of $13.48 for every common share as of Feb 28, 2022.This marks a drop from $15.75 noted at the finish of the prior quarter.

Mortgage loan originations, equally invest in and refinancing, ongoing to normalize in the

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AGNC Investment’s Achilles Heel (NASDAQ:AGNC)

playb/E+ via Getty Images

We opened with a title: AGNC Investment Corp.’s (NASDAQ:AGNC) Achilles Heel; a story that might be considered unpleasant, yet understandable. Although markets always perfectly set prices, a more valuable question must be answered, one which gauges how real or representative that value is. We hope to shed a brighter light on this question. And for high dividend payers such as AGNC, the other primary question is still always about dividend safety. We have covered AGNC previously in our AGNC Investment: We’re Accumulating Despite Interest Rate Uncertainty. Our stance on accumulating hasn’t changed through dividend reinvestment and short calls, but we are adding more depth to the story.

AGNC’s Business

The company borrows money at the short-end of bond market (variable) and loans money into the mortgage markets at fixed, higher rates. This creates risk especially during turbulent interest rates periods, one that the bond market just entered.

Collapsing Price

A chart created from TradeStation Securities follows.

AGNC Weekly Chart

TradeStation Charts

Next, a table showing the Net Tangible Book Value vs stock price is included.

*Rounded values.

Clearly, the stock price follows the Net Tangible Book value, not a genius revelation, but nevertheless important.

Continuing, dividend coverage follows in the next table. The best estimate for coverage compares the dividend to the Net Spread/Dollar Roll Income found in slide 23.

Dividend Coverage 1stQ 20 3rdQ 20 1stQ 21 3rdQ 21 4thQ 21
Net Spread & Dollar Roll Income* $0.55 $0.80 $0.75 $0.75 $0.75
Dividend $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36

* Rounded values.

The dividend coverage has been one and a half to two times the payout. We included 1st quarter 2020 with its exposure to a higher interest rate period. With the world health circumstances for the balance of 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reverse cut the

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3 Factors Clever Dividend Investors Know About AGNC Expense

If you’ve got expended any amount of money of time on the lookout for stocks that fork out significant dividends, you’ve got in all probability run throughout AGNC Investment ( AGNC 1.10% ). At the minute, shares of this authentic estate expenditure believe in (REIT) offer an eye-popping 11.5% yield.

When an ultra-higher-payout stock like AGNC Investment decision displays up on your radar, it can be tempting to hit obtain now and fear about the facts afterwards. Just before pulling any triggers, though, there are a number of matters about this business and its dividend that you ought to know.  

Image source: Getty Photos.

1. AGNC Investment decision is a mortgage loan REIT

REITs are well-known with income-looking for investors nearing retirement due to the fact they are the polar opposite of development shares. By structure, REITs will not will need to shell out cash flow taxes as long as they share practically everything they get paid with their shareholders in the form of dividends.

AGNC Financial commitment is a specialised REIT that won’t even purchase authentic estate. It’s a property finance loan REIT, or mREIT, that borrows at rather minimal brief-term costs to invest in heaps of household property finance loan-backed securities that are confirmed by the U.S. federal government.

2. Now is a historically challenging time to be a mortgage loan REIT

AGNC Investment’s selling price has been sinking since the Federal Reserve is pressuring the mREIT business from two sides. Rising the benchmark desire fee will generate up the firm’s expense of cash. At the very same time, the Fed is hammering the sector value of home loan-backed securities by telling absolutely everyone it designs to cease buying them in bulk.

Chart showing large rise in the number of mortgage-backed securities held by federal reserve banks since 2020.

Mortgage loan-Backed Securities Held by All Federal Reserve Banks details by YCharts

In March of

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